May rigid demand for car production and sales is optimistic

In May, the auto market has not yet been out of supply and demand, and the sales data continues the previous negative growth trend. Analysts believe that the supply and demand of the auto market in May are not optimistic, the production capacity of auto manufacturers is still in recovery, and the probability of sudden improvement of fundamentals is not high. The introduction of industrial policies on new energy vehicles will bring about phased investment. opportunity.

Production and sales double lower than the ring

According to data from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, in May the country’s vehicle production was 1,131,700 units, a decrease of 14.36% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 22.56%. Sales volume was 1,194,700 units, a decrease of 13.95% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 29.74%. Among them, the output of passenger vehicles was 959,700 units, a decrease of 12.92% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 18.95%. Sales volume was 885,800 units, a decrease of 10.85% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 25.02%.

GF Securities analyst Yang Huachao said that both auto supply and demand have caused the production and sales to continue to decline. Due to the earthquake in Japan, the supply of spare parts has been tight. Not only Japanese companies but also many large-scale automobile manufacturers in China have been affected. The overall capacity recovery of the market will still take some time.

Some dealers reported that models that had been out of stock due to the use of imported parts were not able to resume normal supply. Although some companies stated that they could resume production in June, it is expected that in-store inventory will return to normal levels by August. In addition, the introduction of new standards for the procurement of official vehicles imposes strict restrictions on selling prices and displacement. This has a greater impact on the procurement brands of major official vehicles such as Audi, and the demand for automobiles has also been inhibited.

Guo Qing Securities analyst Wang Qingtao said that the quarter-on-month decline means that the May trend still continues in April. It is expected that there will be little chance for the fundamentals to suddenly improve. The overall market for the auto sector may continue to be dull.

Look at rigid demand

Although the current auto market is gloomy, analysts believe that the performance of the auto market should not be too pessimistic. Short-term ups and downs should be ruled out, and the Chinese auto market's rigid demand is strongly expected to increase. The growth of passenger vehicles in May was a good sign of a year-on-year increase, in particular MPVs and SUVs were up 90.77% and 73.03% respectively year-on-year.

Chen Jiaohong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that the explosive growth of the automobile market in 2009 and 2010 was due to the vigorous economic stimulus policies and preferential policies for buying cars. It was not the normal growth of the auto industry. The current situation is the car. The rational return of the industry.

Wang Qingtao believes that although the auto industry's cycle has entered the adjustment period after high growth, although there is no significant positive support, with the recovery of auto parts supply and the gradual recovery of auto production, the market's rigid demand will gradually recover. In addition, with the gradual implementation of the “12th Five-Year Plan” for electric vehicles and the introduction of the “Energy-saving and New Energy Industry Development Plan”, the concept of new energy vehicles will still have staged investment opportunities.

At present, the sales of hybrid vehicles are relatively light, and some market participants are not too optimistic about the new energy vehicle segment. In this regard, Chen Dihong said that the time for the industrialization of new energy vehicles is still very short. Except for price reasons, most car buyers are buying cars for the first time. They do not understand new energy vehicles and do not fully trust new energy technologies. It tends to choose the historic word-of-mouth traditional car. The marketing of new energy vehicles has a nurturing process.