·China Automotive Market Index Research Institute: Do not advocate the "turning point" of the automobile market

Recently, the seventh issue of the China Automotive Market Index Release Report issued by the China Automotive Market Index Institute pointed out that according to China's macroeconomic and automobile market trends and index models, China's new car market will increase by about 10% in 2012, which will challenge. 20 million mark.

The China Automotive Market Index Institute was jointly initiated by Shanghai Dongchang Automobile Group in conjunction with experts from Nanjing University and the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. It has accurately predicted the production and sales of the new car market in China in 2009 and 2010, and has received attention and praise from all walks of life.

In response to the above predictions, Prof. Wang Guorong, spokesperson of the China Automotive Market Index Institute and Dongchang Research Institute, said that the high level of the domestic auto market this year should be regarded as the “post-blowout” period. The bottom of the market has been basically established, and the market will return to the overall 10%. The normal growth rate of the left and right. He said that the China Automobile Market Index Institute does not advocate the "turning point" theory of the automobile market. Because the Chinese economy is still on the track of rapid growth, building a well-off society cannot leave the "line" of "clothing, food, housing and transportation." To enjoy the modern automobile civilization is the "just need" of the Chinese who pursue a more prosperous and well-off life. According to the report, in 2011, China's new car market was consolidating at a high level of 18 million vehicles. This was due to the stimulus policies for small-displacement car purchase tax reductions, support for cars going to the countryside, and auto-for-new subsidies for the first two years in response to the global financial crisis. The combination of punches has at least a 10% increase in the car market. The report also pointed out that the extraordinary increase of 30% and 40% created by the stimulus policy in the previous two years is unsustainable, and an adjustment year is conducive to the growth rate.

Regarding the forecast that the domestic new car market will challenge 20 million new highs in 2012, the report analyzes that in the stage of automobile popularization, the growth rate of automobile production and sales should be 1 to 1.5 times of GDP growth rate, taking into account the population base, per capita roads, and automobiles. For reasons such as the slowdown in culture and economic growth, the regular growth rate of the Chinese auto market should be around 10%. At present, the proportion of people and vehicles in the world is 7:1, and the proportion of Chinese cars is only one-half of the world average. The number of cars in the Chinese auto market has at least doubled, that is, 100 million new cars. If the Chinese auto market wants to enter the “turning point”, it will only appear when the new car market reaches 40 million in 2018.

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