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Looking back at 2004, the Chinese auto industry can be described as a changeable situation. According to statistics, from January to February, China produced a total of 325,400 passenger cars, an increase of 35.7% over the same period of the previous year. But when the industry generally continues to immerse themselves in an optimistic and upbeat industrial atmosphere. In April, a series of macroeconomic control policies aimed at overheating of the economy came to an abrupt end. Although the car has not been listed in the field of restricting investment, it is clear to the eye of the government's economic and administrative department that it is well-intentioned. Bank credit tightening and strict land approval like two fast-closing gates firmly control investment flows. The automobile market has turned sharply, production and consumption have apparently declined, and auto inventories have started to increase.
The trajectory increased for more than 50% for 3 consecutive years, and it became popular in the almost crazy Chinese auto market. It was finally met with a "black" in April. After the rebound in May was unsustainable, the Chinese auto industry began to shift from unusual "explosive growth" to normal "general growth."
In October and October, the automotive industry continued to experience the painful ordeal of the "double drop" in the production and sales of cars over the previous month. In the case of a significant increase in inventory, the production of cars in various companies was forced to adjust downwards. Some media exclaimed that the auto market entered a freezing period after experiencing a frost fall. Investors who eagerly jumped at the beginning of the year suddenly disappeared. The existing manufacturers have come up with the last magic weapon - cut prices to stimulate the increasingly sluggish auto market and maintain market share. The attractiveness of launching new models has been greatly weakened, and the psychology of consumers “killing†has become increasingly firm. The persistently strong 6-digit inventory seems to be testing people's nerves. The overall profits of the auto manufacturing industry have entered negative growth, and the single-profit car dealers are in a more difficult position.
On October 1, China officially began implementing the Regulations on the Administration of Recall of Defective Automotive Products formulated by the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine in March. The once-difficult-to-manufacture recall system for cars was finally degraded. As a result, domestic automakers and distributors will have to face a new and severe test. The interest rate hike at the end of October is mixed for the auto industry. The increasingly tight capital chain is expected to be eased, and rising financial costs will continue to erode the already-compressed profit margins. In November, the “Limits on Fuel Consumption of Passenger Cars†issued jointly by the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine and the National Standardization Committee, as the first mandatory national standards for fuel consumption in China’s automobile industry, determined the technical limits for vehicle fuel consumption.
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For the automotive industry, 2004 is undoubtedly an unforgettable year. This year left too many joys and sorrows for the Chinese auto industry. Whether it is manufacturers, distributors, macro-policy makers and managers, or even consumers, all are mingled with expectations, worries, hopes, and confusion. Perseverance and helpless complex feelings.
Judging from the management orientation, policy choices and behaviors of the auto industry this year, the performance of the government does not give people complete satisfaction. First, the government's current policy initiatives against the automotive industry are fluctuating and inconsistent. This not only reflects the complex mentality of the government, but also makes the industry's guidance to the government unpredictable and even at a loss. Because it is unable to fully grasp the development trend and situation of China's auto industry, and it has not found effective means to guide the healthy operation of the industry, the relevant management departments apparently lack the ability and confidence to combine the long-term consistent industry orientation with the actual operation of administrative guidance and regulation. The result can only be a passive response in the form of “adding more water, more water, more flour†or “firefightersâ€.
The second is that the government's specific policy measures have fallen short of reality and the effectiveness of implementation has been greatly reduced. Because the administrative guidance of the relevant ministries and commissions is not mandatory, there is no corresponding implementation mechanism and punitive measures in the face of the “being obedient and indiscreet†behaviors that local governments and enterprises set out to protect their own interests. In addition, many policies, plans, and proposals involving many ministries and commissions are inevitably overlapped and conflicted with each other. It may seem inevitable that the implementation is not ideal.
Of course, we have no reason to be pessimistic and disappointed. The laws of the market economy have shown that only those industries that have experienced market troubles will have competitiveness and vitality. Looking ahead to next year, the Chinese auto industry will still be full of confidence and vitality. At least some of these trends can be boldly predicted:
First, the market environment that tends to fair competition will promote the overall profitability of the automotive industry to further decrease. Of course, it will still be higher than other general processing and manufacturing industries.
Second, the structural adjustment of the auto supply market will continue. The restructuring and purchase between auto manufacturers will further promote the integration of the auto industry. However, it is impossible for China's auto manufacturing landscape to be "set in the big picture";
Thirdly, the regionalization trend of the automobile industry will be strengthened, the industrial location will be further concentrated, and the enterprise cluster will become an important form for the development of the automobile industry;
Fourth, with the enhancement of self-development awareness of domestic major auto manufacturers and the improvement of independent research and development capabilities, it is expected that significant progress will be made in the auto brand.
Fifth, the relationship between the government and the market has improved, and the government's position on its own role has become more clear. The government will gradually improve the methods of guiding the industry. External issues such as transportation, energy supply, and environmental pressure that are closely related to the automobile industry will play a more important role. Information services and social regulations will be strengthened. The fuel tax will end the controversy. Debut;
Sixth, after the cancellation of auto import licenses and import quota restrictions, the Chinese auto market will further integrate with the world market, and the characteristics of internationalization will become more apparent. With the increase of international competitiveness of enterprises, auto exports are expected to reach a new level.