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Four major conjectures about the LED lighting industry in 2014
Standing in 2014 today, to review the LED lighting industry and market development in 2013, we can only use "nothing is impossible" to describe. Similarly, in 2014, the LED lighting industry will continue to develop rapidly and fiercely, which is the keynote. In this tone, many things, many changes, are "nothing is impossible." Conjecture 1 LED lighting development continues to rise "LED lighting enters the golden development period China becomes the main production base" "2014 global LED lighting demand is expected to be "arrogant" "China LED industry: the industry maintains high prosperity" ... despite media reports There may be more or less "propaganda" or "exaggeration" components, LED fluorescent lamp manufacturers but we can easily see from this: For the development prospects of the LED lighting industry in 2014, everyone expressed great optimism. At the same time, in the near future, some securities companies have also released a number of research reports to jointly "verify": 2014 is a golden development period that the LED lighting industry can not miss, and in the next three years, in the global market and the domestic market, LED lighting penetration The rate is expected to increase further. Shenyin Wanguo Securities released a research report that LED lighting is in the golden three years of rapid penetration. It is estimated that global LED lighting will increase by 90% in 2014, and the penetration rate will reach 20%. Due to the short process of LED lighting and the relatively easy mastery of technology, China has a cost advantage in the segmentation of LED lighting, and will become the main production base of LED lighting in the world. In 2013, the domestic LED indoor lighting market grew by 86%. It is estimated that the growth rate in 2014 and 2015 will be 65% and 43% respectively. Foreign-funded UBS Securities forecasts that global LED lighting demand will increase by 60% in 2014, with home lighting growing the most, which will increase by 90%. The Industrial Securities Research Report pointed out that 2013 to 2016 is the golden development period of global LED lighting, and the penetration rate will increase from 20% to 45%. The LED lighting industry is rare and has a relatively fast growth and certain certainty. The industry... Although the major securities companies have different standards, the data given by the survey is different, but the consistency of the whole direction also gives us a good expectation for the LED lighting industry in 2014. Guess 2 Policy dividends will further weaken the development of LED lighting industry by “mayor†or “marketâ€? This question seems very good at first glance, but in fact it is not easy to give an answer, especially for listed companies in the LED lighting industry. Especially in the past three years. Since 2013, with the maturity of the LED lighting market, government subsidies have faced a sharp decline in terms of quantity, scope, and amount. Therefore, in 2014, national and local government LED-related industrial policy dividends will gradually fade. This is not an alarmist, but will be an established fact. In this regard, more and more people in the industry have a clearer understanding. A boss said: "In 2013, we got a government support fund of 100 million yuan. It would be good to get 10 million yuan in 2014. The local government of LED fluorescent lamp manufacturers used to support the company's policy funds. So, the bosses must find ways to profit from the market." Yes, in 2014, in the face of this situation, LED lighting companies must change their thinking, choose the right direction, reach out to the market and profit from the market. Conjecture 3 The whole industry is still in the stage of product competition. “Products are the life of the enterprise and the soulâ€, and so is the LED lighting industry. Since the fourth quarter of 2013, this newspaper has organized a series of special plans to conduct market research on LED bulbs, LED ceiling lamps, LED fluorescent tubes, LED ceiling lamps and other products, and visited a large number of lighting companies and businesses to collect valuable first-line markets. information. It is not difficult to know from the whole survey that the LED lighting industry is still in the stage of product competition, and this development will continue in 2014. The evolution of industrial competition has a staged nature. Through different stages of understanding, it is possible to construct a market channel layout on a macro level. The evolution stage of the LED industry competition is roughly the replacement period until 2015, the popularization period from 2015-2018, and the innovation period from 2018-2020. Corresponding to different stages, the industry is in the stage of product competition, channel competition, brand competition, capital competition and business environment shaping stage. In 2014, the entire LED lighting industry will remain in the stage of product competition. In the survey visit, more than half of the companies gave a positive answer. In 2014, in the stage of product competition, LED lighting products will face a new round of improvement in technology, standards, and finished product quality. The price of LED products will continue to be affected by chips, packaging, and supporting, and will continue to decline. At the same time, the “price war†with the most comprehensive performance will continue, and the war will be fierce. In 2014, it will give a new round of impact to the terminal market. In the competition stage of LED products, there are decisive categories in the category of LED lighting products: light source (bulb, T8, MR16, candle bubble, lamp belt); indoor lamps (T5 integrated bracket, ceiling light, downlight, panel light) , ceiling lamps, track spotlights; outdoor lighting (street lights, tunnel lights, flood lights, floodlights). Taking LED tubes as an example, industry insiders expect that the growth rate of LED tube sales will remain above 33% in the next five years, and the market sales growth rate will remain above 20%. By 2017, LED tube market sales will be maintained. The scale will reach 44.5 billion yuan. To some extent, this data gives the lighting market more confidence. It can be seen that in the industry, the absolute strong LED lighting brand has not yet appeared, and still in the stage of competition of LED products, many LED lighting companies still have to sink their hearts to make products, LED fluorescent lamps manufacturers and in fact, do a good job It is also one of the most basic tasks of channel construction and brand building. Guess 4 LED home lighting or into a "difficult blue ocean market" before the LED home lighting market before 2013 can be used to describe the words "very good prospects are very cruel", and for the majority of lighting manufacturers, most said "also It’s not a happy time, but this stalemate is expected to break in 2014. Recently, Shenyin Wanguo Securities released a research report that in 2013, the domestic LED indoor lighting market grew by 86%, and the growth rate in 2014 and 2015 is estimated to be 65% and 43% respectively. Foreign-funded UBS Securities predicts that in 2014, home lighting will grow the most, and it will increase by 90%. Industry veterans said that in 2014, LED lighting products are expected to truly “fly into the homes of ordinary peopleâ€: First, due to the large market base and relatively stable demand for home lighting, once developed, it can ensure stable sales revenue, and thus it is valued by LED lighting companies; Secondly, the current more intimate product prices undoubtedly also remove obstacles for the promotion of LED home lighting; in addition, after a long period of promotion and publicity, ordinary consumers began to recognize, accept, and even prefer LED lighting products, these factors will help Pushing LED home lighting quickly opened the market in 2014, increasing penetration.