China's stainless steel surplus will be reduced to 300-400 million tons in 2015

In recent years, along with the rapid development of China's steel industry, the stainless steel industry has also set off an upsurge of investment. The results of a joint investigation conducted by six stainless steel companies, TISCO, Baosteel Stainless Steel, Baoxin, Shanghai Krupp, Zhangjiagang Pohang and Qingdao Pohang, show that the domestic stainless steel production capacity already built and under construction has reached more than 18 million. Tons, among which, 7 million tons comply with national policies and represent the development direction of the international stainless steel industry, 5 million tons of production capacity complying with national policies and general stainless steel smelting process technical requirements, and the remaining 6 million tons of stainless steel production capacity that is inconsistent and in violation of national policies. .

According to 2010, China needs 330-350 million tons of steel, stainless steel accounts for 2.4% of total steel, economic growth is 1%, and stainless steel consumption increases by 1%-1.5%. GDP is increasing by an average annual rate of 10% by 2010. At that time, the consumption of stainless steel in China will be about 8 million tons. According to the hot-rolled strip, 75% of the total stainless steel and the cold-rolled strip accounted for 75% of the hot-rolled strip. By 2010, the demand for hot-rolled stainless steel and cold-rolled strip in China will be 6 million tons respectively. 450 million tons. From the current development trend, by 2010, China's stainless steel production capacity will reach more than 18 million tons, hot rolling production capacity will reach 15 million tons, cold rolling production capacity will exceed 10 million tons.

Obviously, the supply greatly exceeds the demand. This shows that the situation of oversupply of stainless steel has arrived. The excessive growth of production capacity will certainly pose a great threat to the healthy development of China's stainless steel industry. <BR>2, China's stainless steel industry concentration is low, the industry has a

According to analysis by industry insiders, due to measures taken to control the expansion of production capacity and the consumption is also matched with supply, the overcapacity of stainless steel in China will be reduced to 300-400 tons per year within three years. Macquarie analysts believe that China's stainless steel production capacity will exceed 25 million tons/year in 2015, and the apparent consumption of stainless steel will increase to 22 million tons. Another person in the industry also believes that in 2015 China's stainless steel excess capacity will be about 4 million tons / year, and it is expected that China's apparent consumption of stainless steel will be 24 million tons at that time, with a capacity of 28 million tons / year. It is estimated that the stainless steel production capacity in 2011 will be 2000-22 million tons/year. Macquarie predicts that stainless steel production in 2012 will be 15.9 million tons, an increase of 11% over the same period last year. Antaike expects that China's stainless steel production in 2012 will be about 15 million tons, down 1 million tons from the forecast at the beginning of the year.